Three-fourths of Canadian citizens now harbor unfavorable views of President Donald Trump, a sentiment that is casting a heavy cloud over the Conservative Party’s ambitions in the imminent national election, as highlighted by a POLITICO/Focaldata voter survey.
Roughly 39 percent of those polled named Trump’s re-emergence as a top election concern, second only to skyrocketing living costs, cited by 60 percent.
Since Trump’s dramatic comeback to the White House — coinciding with Justin Trudeau’s exit from leadership — Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party has witnessed its once-commanding 25-point lead crumble to dust. Today, the Conservatives lag behind in the majority of polls, including the latest figures from POLITICO/Focaldata.
This election has essentially morphed into a litmus test for Trump’s reach beyond US borders. Facing a tide of anger over his aggressive tactics and trade conflicts, nearly half of Canadians now perceive the US as a hostile force — a profound shift, especially among moderate and Liberal-leaning citizens.
Adding fuel to the fire, Trump, during a Time magazine interview last Friday, once again toyed with the notion of absorbing Canada, “The only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state,” according to POLITICO.
According to Focaldata’s April 18-23 online poll of 2,826 respondents, Trump’s favorability among Canadians rests at a brutal minus 61 — a deficit the pollsters believe could further tilt the election against the Conservatives.
Mark Carney, leading the Liberals, leans heavily on his credentials as former head of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, portraying himself as the most capable guardian of Canada’s interests. The poll hints that voters find him better equipped than Poilievre to manage the nation’s fragile relationship with Trump and the US.
“President Trump and I … share some common threads,” Carney remarked after his recent swearing-in. “I’ve traversed the private sector. I’ve brokered hefty real estate deals. I’ve collaborated with him during his earlier presidency at international summits like the G20 and G7.”
With mere days left before ballots are cast, the outcome remains a cliffhanger.
Nonetheless, subtle indicators suggest pollsters might be underestimating Conservative support. When asked who their neighbors might vote for, respondents gave Conservatives a slight edge. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s top research strategist, noted that this “wisdom of the crowds” technique correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s earlier victories.
He explained, “The data hints at a Conservative lean and substantial polling distortion,” though cautioned that this method was untested in Canadian elections.
Overall, Focaldata gives Liberals the upper hand as the campaign closes, projecting 40.5 percent national support for Carney’s Liberals, against 37.5 percent for Poilievre’s Conservatives, as per POLITICO.
The Liberals command a sturdy 9-point advantage in vote-rich Ontario (46 to 37 percent) and maintain a lead in Quebec (38 percent) over Bloc Québécois (28 percent) and Conservatives (22 percent). Conservatives, however, dominate the provinces west of Ontario, leading in British Columbia by an 8-point margin (42 to 34 percent).
Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party trails nationally at 10.7 percent, with only 58 percent of its backers firmly committed, compared to the 71 percent of Conservatives and 68 percent of Liberals who are unwavering.
Crucially, Carney has managed to distinguish himself from Trudeau, who is polarizing in voters’ eyes — a major asset, considering Trudeau’s sagging approval ratings. About 46 percent believe Carney represents a distinct break from Trudeau’s era, and say their votes reflect that recognition.
Focaldata’s figures, slightly favoring Liberals, align closely with other national polling snapshots.
Favorability scores shed even more light; Carney holds a net positive favorability of 10 points, while Poilievre is underwater by 7 points.
Carney also enjoys a rare crossover appeal: 86 percent of Liberals view him favorably compared to 84 percent of Conservatives’ positive view of Poilievre. Meanwhile, 65 percent of Conservatives harbor negative feelings about Carney — less than the 74 percent of Liberals who dislike Poilievre. This imbalance boosts Carney’s advantage.
As for Trump, distaste for him runs deep across party lines. A striking three in five Conservatives view Trump unfavorably.
After clinching Conservative leadership in 2022, Poilievre barnstormed Canada, proclaiming that “Canada is broken.” That narrative initially resonated — until Trump’s re-entry reignited a wave of patriotic resolve.
Even now, Conservatives maintain a slender advantage in terms of economic concerns. But Carney commands trust when it comes to steering Canada’s fragile ties with the US.
While both Liberals and Conservatives identify inflation and the cost of living as urgent matters, a full 52 percent of Liberals also say that managing the US relationship — heavily influenced by Trump’s antics — is at the top of their minds. That’s nearly double the 27 percent of Conservatives who share that priority, as reported by POLITICO.
Healthcare sits in third place on the Liberals’ concern list, while Conservatives rank it fourth after housing affordability.
Meanwhile, Conservatives display heightened anxiety about immigration, refugee policy, crime, and public safety — issues reflected sharply in Poilievre’s campaign platform.
Naturally, voters tend to trust their own parties more on key issues. Still, the numbers reveal significant cracks. When asked who’s better suited to handle Trump and the US, Liberals overwhelmingly pick Carney — and notably, one in eight Conservatives agree. An additional one in six Conservatives aren’t sure.
On the other hand, 8 percent of Liberals concede that Poilievre would better stimulate jobs and the economy. Some also think Poilievre would outperform Carney on immigration and crime: 12.5 percent of Liberals favor Poilievre for immigration management, and 20 percent back him on crime control.
In total, 45 percent of Canadians say Trump’s actions influenced their vote either “moderately” or “a lot” — though that breaks sharply along party lines.
Among Liberal voters, 53 percent say Trump played a major role in their decision-making. Only a quarter of Conservative voters say the same.
The split extends to how Canadians now perceive the US: 64 percent of Liberals view America as “unfriendly” or an outright “enemy,” compared to just 19 percent who still see it as an ally, according to the reports by POLITICO.
Among Conservatives, 40 percent continue to view the US as an ally, but 34 percent now describe the neighboring giant with suspicion.
Today, nearly half of Canadians — 49 percent — categorize the US as “unfriendly” or an “enemy,” a sentiment more hostile than that directed at China despite years of diplomatic frost.
